Explainer Series: Kyoto Protocol

What is the Kyoto Protocol?

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 and enforced in 2005 with an aim to implement the objective of the extending objective of reduced greenhouse gas emissions as provided for in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).The Treaty’s primary goal is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations "at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system."[1].

The Protocol aims to help countries reduce seven greenhouse gases, namely, Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O), Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6), Nitrogen Trifluoride (NF3).[2] It rests on the environmental law principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibility which establishes that all states are responsible for addressing global environmental destruction, yet, not equally responsible.[3]It places a larger onus on more developed countries as not all countries are equally placed to tackle climate change. As per Annex 2[4] of the Protocol, which highlights the reduction commitment undertaken by each specific member, there are certain reduction targets for 37 countries.[5] This encourages countries to report their progress. The Protocol is unique in the way that it offers flexible market mechanisms; though states are free to take measures to ensure results, the Protocol has provisions for additional help if needed:

- The first method is International Emissions Trading. As per Article 17 of the Protocol[6], any country with excess emission units is able to sell to countries exceeding their targets.[7] This means that if some country has emitted less than the allowed carbon units, it would be able to sell this excess credit of carbon units to a country which may have already exceeded its permitted carbon emission limit. This has led to the creation of a carbon trading market.

- The second method is the Clean Development Mechanism. It is reflected under Article 12[8]. It allows countries to develop emission reduction projects in other countries that might be struggling to reduce their emissions.[9]

Why have some countries withdrawn from the Protocol?

Canada, which has famously withdrawn from the Kyoto Protocol, remarked: “Kyoto did not represent the way forward for Canada or the world. To meet the targets under Kyoto for 2012 would be the equivalent of either removing every car, truck, ATV, tractor, ambulance, police car and vehicle of every kind from Canadian roads.”[10] They further commented that non-regulation in China and the US plays a major role in holding the whole world back in terms of tackling the climate crisis. There have been allegations that the withdrawal has been motivated by the incentive to grow Canada’s oil industry. As one would expect, the signing of protocols has turned into a political issue in most countries as signing of protocols is increasingly being portrayed as a liberal move. It is evident as Canada’s withdrawal from Kyoto Protocol and USA’s withdrawal from the Paris agreement came after heavy criticism from a ‘conservative’ government.

Has the Protocol succeeded?

The figure below showcases that most policies adopted today are going to increase emissions over the years, while the main aim of most protocols and treaties adopted is to reduce carbon intensity.[11]

(Source: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-10-12/why-climate-policy-has-failed)

Moreover, even after signing the protocol, the global CO2 emissions have increased by a whopping 51% globally.[12]Emissions by European nations, as a whole, have only decreased by 1% while emissions from developed nations, as a whole, have increased by 7%[13]; thereby very little change. This may be attributed to big countries such as China and USA not signing the protocol. At the same time, it must be noticed that most countries which are actively participating in the protocol proceedings are developed European nations. Developing nations such as China and India understand that such developed nations took their own leisurely time to progress their countries but now when the Asian economies have started to upscale their ambitions, the world is putting restrictions. For most part, countries which are aiming for a heavy industrialization push in the coming decades have not signed up for the protocol.

Historically, India’s contribution to Greenhouse Gasses (GHG) emissions is not very significant, but its future looks bleak as India continues to economically grow.[14] The Kyoto Protocol (and the start of environmental treaties, in general) came at a time for India where former PM Indira Gandhi pitted socio-economic against environmental protection.[15]Being a developing nation (which translates to India being excluded from Annex 1), India was able to successfully protect its space for socio-economic development while simultaneously pushing for developed countries to take on more responsibilities however it is important to note that at the Kyoto Protocol negotiations, India had explicitly refused any notion of voluntary commitments.[16] In a joint statement released with China, the two countries have reiterated the importance of the protocol but underlined how national circumstances, different development stages and historical realities must be kept in mind while assessing the developing nations.[17]

Conclusion

The protocol plays a pivotal role in inculcating the principle of common but differentiated responsibility but as seen from the article, the effects of the treaty have been very limited. While India, China and other nations refuse to accept the current framework, there is growing discontent even among the ratified parties over being held accountable in a climate change regime which excludes the highest polluters. It can also be seen that the protocol has largely been a bit-part player in reducing carbon emissions on a macro scale. Thus, while the intention of reducing carbon emissions may be morally sound, there is a desperate need to gather all stakeholders and arrive at a common consensus.

Image source : www.aljazeera.com

[1] (Unfccc.int, 2021) <https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change> accessed 7 October 2021. [2] 'Overview Of Greenhouse Gases - NAEI, UK' (Naei.beis.gov.uk, 2021) <https://naei.beis.gov.uk/overview/ghg-overview> accessed 7 October 2021. [3] 'Common But Differentiated Responsibilities | International Environmental Law' (Encyclopedia Britannica, 2021) <https://www.britannica.com/topic/common-but-differentiated-responsibilities> accessed 11 October 2021. [4] Unfccc.int. 2022. [online] Available at: <https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/docs/cop3/l07a01.pdf#page=24> [Accessed 5 April 2022]. [5] (Unfccc.int, 2021) <https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/docs/cop3/l07a01.pdf#page=24> accessed 7 October 2021. [6] Article 17 reads “The Conference of the Parties shall define the relevant principles, modalities, rules and guidelines, in particular for verification, reporting and accountability for emissions trading. The Parties included in Annex B may participate in emissions trading for the purposes of fulfilling their commitments under Article 3. Any such trading shall be supplemental to domestic actions for the purpose of meeting quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments under that Article.” Protocol, K., n.d. Article 17. [online] Unfccc.int. Available at: <https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf> [Accessed 12 April 2022]. [7] (Unfccc.int, 2021) <https://unfccc.int/process/the-kyoto-protocol/mechanisms/emissions-trading> accessed 7 October 2021. [8] Protocol, K., n.d. Article 12. [online] Unfccc.int. Available at: <https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf> [Accessed 12 April 2022]. [9] (Unfccc.int, 2021) <https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-kyoto-protocol/mechanisms-under-the-kyoto-protocol/the-clean-development-mechanism> accessed 7 October 2021. [10] the Guardian. 2022. Canada pulls out of Kyoto protocol. [online] Available at: <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/dec/13/canada-pulls-out-kyoto-protocol> [Accessed 5 April 2022]. [11] 'Why Climate Policy Has Failed' (Foreign Affairs, 2021) <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-10-12/why-climate-policy-has-failed> accessed 8 October 2021. [12] Circular Ecology. 2022. The Kyoto Protocol: Climate Change Success or Global Warming Failure? - Circular Ecology. [online] Available at: <https://circularecology.com/news/the-kyoto-protocol-climate-change-success-or-global-warming-failure> [Accessed 5 April 2022]. [13] the Guardian. 2022. Has the Kyoto protocol made any difference to carbon emissions?. [online] Available at: <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2012/nov/26/kyoto-protocol-carbon-emissions> [Accessed 5 April 2022]. [14] Aniruddh Mohan, 'From Rio To Paris: India In Global Climate Politics | ORF' (ORF, 2021) <https://www.orfonline.org/research/rio-to-paris-india-global-climate-politics/> accessed 9 October 2021. [15] Aniruddh Mohan, 'From Rio To Paris: India In Global Climate Politics | ORF' (ORF, 2021) <https://www.orfonline.org/research/rio-to-paris-india-global-climate-politics/> accessed 12 October 2021. [16] Aniruddh Mohan, 'From Rio To Paris: India In Global Climate Politics | ORF' (ORF, 2021) <https://www.orfonline.org/research/rio-to-paris-india-global-climate-politics/> accessed 12 October 2021. [17] The Wire. 2022. Here's why the India, China Statement on Climate Change is a Big Deal. [online] Available at: <https://thewire.in/diplomacy/heres-why-the-india-china-statement-on-climate-change-is-a-big-deal> [Accessed 5 April 2022].